Seasonal (0-3 months) climate forecasts and near-term decadal (10-30 years) climate change projections provide valuable information for improving seasonal and long-term planning of water and energy management. Given that the climatic attributes over these time periods are typically expressed as probabilistic information, we propose an adaptive water and energy management framework that uses probabilistic inflow forecasts to allocate water for uses with pre-specified reliabilities. To ensure that the system needs are not compromised due to forecast uncertainty, we consider uncertainty reduction using model combination as well as using a probabilistic constraint in meeting the target storage. This forum will present findings from the multimodel combination as well as their utility in improving allocation from multipurpose reservoirs around the world. In addition, results on applying the proposed framework using near-term climate change projections for supporting the capacity expansion of within-year reservoir systems (Lake Jordan) will be presented.

Note: There is no video for this presentation, but you may access a PDF of the slides below: