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Research Awards and Grants (February 2023)

Each month College of Natural Resources faculty receive awards and grants from various federal, state, and nongovernmental agencies in support of their research. This report recognizes the faculty who received funding in February 2023.

Value of Flow Forecasts to Power System Analytics

  • PI: Kern, Jordan 
  • Direct Sponsor Name: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • Awarded Amount: $5,000.00 

Abstract: Most hydropower utilities rely on external forecast products provided by NOAA River Forecast Centers and/or an additional source from private industry to support the scheduling of hydropower operations. The producers of these forecasts, NOAA, industry, and even in-house forecasters, do not have access to the dynamic energy prices (production cost models) or the electricity traders strategies to maximize revenue from utilization of the hydropower assets. Therefore, the group operating the reservoir is unable to assess the market value of their inflow forecasts, eliminating any ability to target forecast improvements to increase contributions of hydropower to electrical system needs. Both NOAA and industry have reached out to DOE WPTO to understand which inflow forecast products and accuracy levels would be needed to enhance the value of forecasts, from water management and marketed hydropower and grid resilience perspectives. We propose to use inflow forecast, reservoir and power system model simulations, and case studies to practically demonstrate where forecast improvements would create the most value for hydropower services. This research will benefit utilities and other hydropower operators who utilize flow forecasting to support water management and electricity production; it will also support DOE in targeting future investments related to forecasting that will benefit these groups. 

BASF Testing Agreement

  • PI: Gonzalez, Ronalds Wilfredo
  • Direct Sponsor Name: BASF Corporation
  • Awarded Amount: $10,000.00 

Abstract:  NC State University (NCSU) will test the encapsulation of antimicrobial and pesticidal molecules (active ingredients) using lignin for the purpose of controlling the particle size and release of the active compound. 

Collaborative Research: CAS-Climate: Reservoir DeadPool in the Western United States: Probability and Consequences of a Novel Extreme Event

  • PI: Kern, Jordan 
  • Direct Sponsor Name: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Amount Awarded: $128,930.00 

Abstract: Collaboration between Colorado School of Mines, NC State, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Study will examine the probability of drought causing ‘dead pool’ events at reservoirs in the Western United States (where water levels fall so low that hydropower production is impossible), and the impacts on the cost and reliability of bulk electric power system operations. 

Forest Health Monitoring, Analysis, and Assessment

  • PI: Conkling, Barbara L.
  • Direct Sponsor Name: US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service
  • Awarded Amount: $425,474.00 

Abstract: The Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program is a long-term, national research and monitoring effort focusing on forest ecosystems. This interagency program is designed to assist resource managers and policy makers in managing forest resources in the United States, allocating funds for research and development, and evaluating the effectiveness of environmental policies. FHM national reporting includes an annual technical report that provides analysis and synthesis of technical information at the national level as well as other special publications that provide information about national forest health conditions and management priorities. Through the work in this agreement, the principal investigators and other research personnel will provide the Forest Health Monitoring Research Team of the USFS Southern Research Station’s Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) with data analyses, natural resource assessments, and technical writing skills in support of the national Forest Health Monitoring Program’s annual national reporting and research efforts. This will include performing and coordinating data analysis, technical writing, and editing for FHM’s annual forest health data report and contributions to other reporting and research efforts. The project will also provide support to the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program in documentation development.

The Southern Fire Exchange: Putting Fire Science on the Ground

PI: Roise, Joseph P.

Direct Sponsor Name: University of Florida

Awarded Amount: $82,860.00 

Abstract: The key goals of SFE are to unite the fire science and natural resource management communities in the Southern U.S. and to increase the awareness, access, understanding and application of wildland fire science into regional natural resource management decisions. Over the last three years, we have focused on refining our core interactive fire science delivery programs, such as workshops, field tours and webinars, in ways that have solidified our role as a key knowledge broker for fire science in the region.

A Conference on Equity, Diversity and Inclusion in Citizen Science

  • PI: Cooper, Caren Beth
  • Direct Sponsor Name: National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • Amount Awarded: $74,947.00 

Abstract: Citizen science projects number in the thousands and even a single project can engage millions of people. Yet, citizen science is not engaging much beyond highly educated, affluent white participants. The goals of this Conference proposal are to address the urgent need for diversity and inclusion in citizen science. Our primary goal, and strategic impact for the informal STEM learning field, is to create a framework to guide projects in addressing issues of justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion (JEDI) in institution-driven, large-scale, contributory citizen science projects. Our secondary goal is to extend the effort by preparing a proposal for a Research Coordination Network on inclusion in citizen science. To achieve these goals, we will assemble people with highly varied perspectives, lived experiences, and career experiences for a series of virtual workshops over several months. 

Factors Affecting Spatial Distribution of Overstory and Understory Yellow Pine in Mixed Pine/Hardwood Forests within the EFR Network

  • PI: Forrester, Jodi A.
  • Direct Sponsor Name: US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service
  • Awarded Amount: $70,000.00 

Abstract: This study directly addresses Forest Restoration and, more specifically, shortleaf pine restoration in support of the Shortleaf Pine Initiative; a priority research topic identified by both SRS and R8. This study will continue to build upon and refine our knowledge related to the ecology and management of southern yellow pine communities across the South. This study takes advantage of the widespread distribution of shortleaf pine across the EFR Network and builds upon current EFR-related projects specific to shortleaf pine, including a study assessing current and future shortleaf pine habitat and population trends and a study examining the genetic diversity/hybridization of shortleaf pine. The primary goal associated with this study is to improve our understanding of the ecology and management of shortleaf pine and, more broadly, southern yellow pine ecosystems across the southern region. Specific objectives include: 1) Quantify the shortleaf pine/southern yellow pine resource on key experimental forests within the eastern SRS’s EFR network using LiDAR and field data/NAIP imagery. 2) Quantify the spatial arrangement of the existing shortleaf/southern yellow pine overstory and understory within the selected EFRs. 3) Identify environmental factors influencing the spatial distribution of shortleaf/southern yellow pine (overstory and understory) within and among selected EFRs. Factors may include edaphic conditions, disturbance history, distance to seed sources, and various topographic variables (slope, aspect, solar radiation load, etc.).   

Forecasting Forest Vegetation in Isle Royale National Park – CESU

  • PI: Scheller, Robert 
  • Direct Sponsor Name: US Geological Survey (USGS)
  • Awarded Amount: $50,674.00 

Abstract: Isle Royale is internationally recognized for its populations of wolves and moose. Despite wolf predation on the moose population, both the short and longer-term impacts of moose browsing can be seen across the island. In response to a decade-long decline in the wolf population of Isle Royale National Park, ultimately resulting in just two wolves remaining, the National Park Service (NPS) began reintroducing wolves to the island over the past winter.  It is not, however, possible to disentangle all of the factors that might influence patterns of vegetation change over large landscapes with traditional experimental approaches or by conducting observational studies on their own. We will combine landscape-scale simulation models and data from experiments and observational studies to foster a more integrated understanding of vegetation, herbivore, carnivore dynamics. By using a simulation model to evaluate hypothetical scenarios, we will isolate the possible effects of one or more factors while holding others constant. Climate change will also interact with wolf predation and moose browsing to alter the future forests of Isle Royale and will be considered in our forecasting.

Urban Bear Data Analysis

  • PI: DePerno, Christopher S
  • Direct Sponsor Name: NC Wildlife Resources Commission
  • Awarded Amount: $100,811.00 

Abstract: Cities now constitute one of the most rapidly growing ecosystems in the world, and with the global spotlight on increasing urbanization and development, the focus on wildlife in natural systems is sharing importance with a focus on wildlife in urban systems, providing unique research opportunities in ecology and conservation. Currently, greater than 10% of the earth’s land surface is categorized as “urban cover” and that area is continually growing.  By 2050, 70% of the human population is expected to live in cities, which now constitute one of the “newest and fastest growing” ecosystems in the world.  In North Carolina, black bear populations occupy nearly two-thirds of the state and their range continues to expand, including into areas with high densities of people and road networks.  Humans and black bears are now living in greater proximity to each other, resulting in increased human-bear interactions and some areas of the state may have reached or exceeded the social carrying capacity.  Continued investigations into the fine scale spatial and behavioral ecology of black bears in urban environments is warranted. For example, the identification of characteristics associated with bear-vehicle mortality along major interstates will help identify habitat characteristics associated with collision, and thus may aid in reducing collisions with vehicles.  Additionally, in source-sink dynamics, wildlife populations that have access to high quality habitat typically have birth rates that are greater than death rates and surplus individuals disperse from the population as emigrants. In contrast, sink populations have low habitat quality, or suitability, and thus experience death rates that exceed birth rates and the population could decline towards extinction (i.e., a sink), unless rescued by immigration from surrounding source populations. We will evaluate family group dynamics and estimate population growth rates and population dynamics. Clearly, these objectives have direct and indirect consequences for humans and bears in our rapidly changing urban environments.  

Quantifying On-Farm Reservoirs’ Impacts on Surface Hydrology Using a Multi-Sensor Approach (Student: Mollie D. Gaines)

  • PI: Tulbure, Mirela Gabriela
  • Direct Sponsor Name: National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)
  • Awarded Amount: $45,000.00 

Abstract: Fresh water stored by on-farm reservoirs (OFRs) is a fundamental component of surface hydrology and is critical for meeting global irrigation needs. Farmers use OFRs to store water during the wet season for crop irrigation during the dry season. There are more than 2.6 million OFRs in the US alone, and many of these OFRs were constructed during the last 40 years. Despite their importance for irrigating crops, OFRs can contribute to downstream water stress by decreasing stream discharge and peak flow in the watersheds where they are built, thereby exacerbating water stress intensified by climate change and population growth. However, modeling the impact of OFRs on surface hydrology remains a challenge because they are so abundant and have frequent fluctuations in surface area and water volume. Prior to the recent availability of satellite data, widespread monitoring of OFRs surface area and water volume across space and time was impossible due to temporal latency of satellite observations. The goal of this project, therefore, is to harness a multi-sensor satellite imagery approach to reduce observation latency and improve surface hydrology modeling, with the aim of supporting more efficient management of OFRs and mitigation of their downstream impacts. Our objectives are: 1) Develop a multi-sensor imagery approach to reduce latency and obtain sub-weekly OFRs surface area and volume change; and 2) Input sub-weekly OFRs volume change into the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate OFRs’ impact on surface hydrology. Specifically for Objective 1, a novel method based on the Kalman filter will be used to harmonize data from multiple optical sensors and to provide sub-weekly OFRs surface area change, which will be converted to volume change using area-elevation equations. Then for Objective 2, we will carry out hydrological simulations in SWAT to quantify OFRs’ impact on simulated daily and monthly stream discharge, simulating stream discharge with and without the OFRs. We will perform yearly simulations, based on satellite imagery availability, to measure OFRs’ impact during low and peak flows in each watershed of our study region, which will account for both intra- as well as inter-annual variability in flows. This project will monitor OFRs’ surface area and volume change to enable better assessment and management of water quantity, and further the use of Earth system science to inform decisions and provide benefits to society regarding preservation of surface water resources, both of which are overarching science goals that guide NASA’s Earth Science Division program.

Does chilling explain the divergent response of spring phenology to urban heat islands? (Xiaojie Gao)

  • PI: Gray, Joshua Michael
  • Direct Sponsor Name: National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)
  • Awarded Amount: $90,000.00 

Abstract: Urbanization is known to have direct impacts on plant phenology. Understanding these effects is important to biodiversity dynamics, ecosystem structure, carbon cycles, and human health. Temperature increases from the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect are thought to be the main driver of plant phenological changes around cities. However, trends in plants start of growing season (SOS) dates around urban areas, compared to their surrounding countryside, have diverged across the globe: some advance, and some delay. Divergent SOS trends have been observed in field measurements as well as satellite remotely sensed terrestrial vegetation seasonality and land surface phenology (LSP). However, the reasons for this phenomenon remain unclear. We hypothesize that divergent SOS trends can be explained by the interaction between UHI-induced seasonal temperature changes and variable plant chilling requirements, the need of plants to be exposed to sufficiently low temperatures to release dormancy in spring. This project responds directly to NASA’s Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems program questions: how do ecosystems, land cover and biogeochemical cycles respond to and affect global environmental change? And: What are the consequences of land cover and land-use change for human societies and the sustainability of ecosystems? Also, it is well-aligned with the broader NASA Earth Science Division goal of detecting and predicting changes in Earth’s ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, including land cover, biodiversity, and the global carbon cycle. Moreover, we expect this work will make contributions to the remote sensing, phenology, and global change science communities by providing: 1) an improved understanding of how temperature controls plant phenology in urban areas; 2) a long-term 30 m spatial resolution LSP dataset for large cities and its retrieving model, which can be generally applied to other urban or natural regions.

Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, Phase 2

  • PI: Kern, Jordan 
  • Direct Sponsor Name: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • Awarded Amount: $198,333.00 

Abstract: The overarching goal of the proposed research tasks for the NCSU team in Phase 2 of IM3 is to help develop new, open source operational models of the U.S. bulk electric power system, one for each of the three regional interconnections: the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC); the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT); and the Eastern Interconnection (EIC). These models will then be used by NCSU and other members of the IM3 team to address the impacts of weather and water dynamics in the simulation of grid operations in Experiment Groups B and D as described in the IM3 Phase 2 proposal

Scaling Up Biocrude Derived Anode Material (BDAM)

  • PI: Park, Sunkyu 
  • Direct Sponsor Name: US Dept. of Energy (DOE) – Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE)
  • Awarded Amount: $2,649,938.00 

Abstract: We will improve and validate the critical unit operations needed for producing high-value carbon materials (graphite and hard carbon) used for lithium ion and sodium ion batteries from a fraction of the biocrude produced by biomass fast pyrolysis. This work will bring together two innovations, 1) production of high-value carbon materials from the biocrude heavy residues fraction, which are often difficult to convert into biofuels, and 2) process innovations that should lower the costs for producing these high-value carbons. In order to produce high-value carbons, the biocrude residues are sequentially heated to remove volatiles and oxygen, polymerize the biomass carbons into graphene sheets, and in a second step form either highly crystalline graphite or disordered hard carbon. The graphite can be used in as drop-in anode material in existing commercial lithium ion battery (LIB) applications such as portable electronics and electric vehicles (EVs), while the hard carbon can be used in emerging and advancing battery applications, such as sodium ion battery (SIB) for grid electrochemical energy storage and LIB for hybrid batteries in EV with high capacity and good rate capability.  The team has demonstrated that both graphite and hard carbon can be produced from pyrolysis biocrudes at laboratory scale and has measured their electrochemical performance in batteries. This work will optimize the range of operating parameters, with a focus on the complex interactions between the chemical changes and the heat and mass transfer characteristics of the reactor and increase the production scale to obtain mass and energy balances that are relevant for modeling commercial potential. The performance of the carbon materials will be evaluated to define their values in commercial systems. Both techno-economics (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) will be performed to understand the economic and environmental impact of the proposed technology. Preliminary revenue analysis suggests diverting 15-25% of the biocrude, essentially all of the heavy and less valuable fraction, into high-value carbons like graphite or hard carbon can significantly improve the profits of a biorefinery and lower the cost of making biofuels. The goal of this project is to optimize and scale-up the process for producing graphite and hard carbon that meet the requirement for LIB and SIB, respectively. Performance specification will be measured, including electrochemical performance under varying conditions (e.g., operating voltage range, current density, and c-rate) using coin-type and pouch cells. We will use a suite of advanced analytical tools to develop a more detailed understanding of 1) how the chemical composition of biocrude and the carbonization process impact the macromolecular ordering of the final products and 2) how the changes in carbon structure influence on the ion storage behavior (e.g., (de)insertion and adsorption/desorption) and subsequent electrochemical performance. In addition to the performance of the carbon materials, we will determine yields in order to close the mass and energy balances of the process. This data will be used to conduct rigorous TEA and LCA models to demonstrate the target FOA metrics such as $3.00/GGE fuel selling price and 60% reduction in emission.  Successful completion of the scale up of bio-based graphite and hard carbon production will enable commercialization of these processes and will have an important impact on several sustainable technologies, 1) the low cost biocrude, the bio-based graphite will reduce the cost for LIB that can be used in EVs, 2) the low cost of hard carbon production will enable SIB for energy grid storage and LIB for advanced batteries for EVs, supporting continued growth of PV and wind electricity generation, and 3) commercial production of graphite and hard carbon as biorefinery co-products will improve the overall economics of producing biofuels.  

Agent-Based Modeling for the Multi-Objective Optimization of Energy Production Pathways: Integrated Techno-Economics and Life Cycle Assessment

  • PI: Kern, Jordan 
  • Direct Sponsor Name: Colorado State University
  • Awarded Amount: $300,000.00 

Abstract: Concerns over depleting oil reserves and national security have spurred renewed vigor in developing bio-based fuels. A variety of feedstocks, conversion technologies, and biobased refinery concepts have been proposed and are being investigated. The viability of these systems is typically quantified through sustainability assessments. Current work has focused on the assessment of technologies either based on economic viability or environmental impact but typically not concurrently. Further, there has been minimal work in the area of biorefinery optimization. The proposed work will develop a unique toolset that is capable of identifying promising production pathways as well as performance targets for biobased energy and co-product systems. The foundation of the work is a modular engineering process model that captures the performance of various feedstock production systems, conversion technologies, and end use. This foundation is coupled with techno-economic, life cycle and resource demand modeling to understand the sustainability of the various production pathways. The work includes the novel coupling of economics and environmental impact through integration of a social cost of carbon such that a more holistic assessment can be performed.

North Carolina Statewide Forest Products Marketing Team

  • PI: Laleicke, Paul Frederik
  • Direct Sponsor Name: US Forest Service
  • Awarded Amount: $249,739.00 

Abstract: The North Carolina Statewide Forest Products Marketing Team (SFPMT) is a team of industry professionals working together to assess and review the current state of the North Carolina forest and wood products industry to identify marketing issues and needs, develop solutions and assist the industry to exploit opportunities. Covering all one hundred counties of North Carolina plus the Eastern Band of the Cherokee Indians,  economic opportunities identified by the project will benefit local communities for employment and economic activity.  Improved forest management and marketing will lower the cost of good forest management for landowners resulting in more acres of forest improvements to be undertaken.  This project will support efforts to maintain current forest land use as working forest land, thus supporting environmental maintenance of wildlife and water resources.  This project will offer a platform for cooperative education and networking to improve communication among industry participants and to promote better utilization of North Carolina’s forest resources in the US National Forests as well as on private forest lands. North Carolina State University is the organizer of this effort, with a project staff of five industry professionals to oversee the proposed efforts for organization and outreach. The project will update both USFS Product Locators for North Carolina for primary and secondary industry segments. The team will host approximately thirty regional meetings across the state, reaching out to all industry segments, including landowners, loggers, log yards, sawmills and lumber drying operations, firewood, cabinet, furniture, millwork, flooring and composite manufacturers. The use of electronic media tools will optimize outreach efforts and create a vivid, interactive, and resourceful connection to, and within the industry. Our expectation is that our efforts will grow sales, profitability and employment for the forest and wood products industry in North Carolina. This project will raise the importance of networking to a new level as we reach out and include a large number of industry participants that are not connected today and will open new channels for better utilization of forest materials into value-added products.

Catalytic Upgrading of Carbohydrates in Waste Streams to Hydrocarbons

  • PI: Park, Sunkyu 
  • Direct Sponsor Name: US Dept. of Energy (DOE) – Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE)
  • Awarded Amount: $1,250,807.00 

Abstract: The objective of this project is to demonstrate catalytic processes for upgrading carbohydrates to hydrocarbon biofuels using two low-cost wet organic waste streams: Papermaking sludge and Post-sorted municipal solid waste.  The work is based on the previous success of hydrocarbon production from corn stover in a bench scale via dilute-acid and enzymatic deconstruction followed by dehydration to furans, condensation, and hydrodeoxygenation to hydrocarbons. The project team will develop (1) a sugar production process and a removal strategy of non-carbohydrates that could poison catalysts during the conversion process, (2) isomerization and dehydration processes necessary to convert both glucose and xylose to furans in a single reactor, (3) an upgrading process of furans via aldol condensation with ketone and hydrodeoxygenation to diesel range hydrocarbons, and (4) a detailed techno-economic analysis to integrate and optimize the overall process. The developed process in this project will be demonstrated in a relevant pilot-scale and life cycle assessment will be evaluated.   

Forest Health Retrospective: A National Evaluation of Insect and Disease Extent and Impact

  • PI: Cubbage, Frederick W.
  • Direct Sponsor Name: US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service
  • Awarded Amount: $180,000.00 

Abstract: The USDA Forest Service, via the Southern Research Station, is providing an additional $95,000 to complete an additional set of objectives for the project Forest Health Retrospective: A National Evaluation of Insect and Disease and Impact. To achieve these objectives, the existing 36-month project would need to be extended by an additional 24 months. The new objectives would focus on the development of improved analysis and application of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, in combination with other broad-scale datasets, to provide decision-support relating to forest health at a national or multi-state regional scale. This would include indicator information for national reporting efforts relating to forest resource status, forest sustainability and forest health. Specific new deliverables would include: 1) The development and refinement of improved indicators of invasive plant impacts in U.S. forests. This would involve the analyses of FIA data and other data sets to better understand spatial and temporal patterns of the ecosystem impacts of invasive plants, and to predict their potential impacts across spatial and temporal scales. Results would be included in U.S. Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessment reporting and sustainability reporting associated with the Criteria and Indicators for the Conservation and Sustainable Management of Temperate and Boreal Forests (the Montréal Process).  2)The development (in cooperation with USDA Forest Service scientists) of methods to analyze FIA data, geospatial drought data, and other data sets to define explicit relationships between forest mortality and thresholds of drought intensity, extent, and persistence. The objective would be to establish quantitative relationships that can be used for prediction and for retrospective analysis for the RPA Assessment and Montréal Process reports. 3)The development and publication of forest health analyses using newly available FIA data, including from previously unsurveyed or under surveyed locations like Hawaii and Puerto Rico, and from newly available remeasurement data. This work may include assessments, across multiple temporal and spatial scales, of biodiversity change, indicators of forest tree genetic diversity risk, and/or forest disturbance. 4) The integration of multiple broad-scale forest health data sets to better understand the interactions among multiple threats, such as insect and diseases, drought, and fire, and their cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems.  

Unearthing interacting nontuberculous mycobacterial, environmental, and host determinants of lung Disease in the Hawaiian Islands

  • PI: Pacifici, Jamian 
  • Direct Sponsor Name: National Jewish Health
  • Awarded Amount: $192,391.00 

Abstract: The main objectives of this proposal are to fill current gaps in knowledge of nontuberculous mycobacteria ecology and disease transmission using the Hawaiian Islands as a model to understand the critical factors that influence how NTM inhabiting water and soil environments become infectious agents responsible for a recalcitrant lung disease. The specific aims of this proposal are to 1) conduct island-wide environmental sampling and use genomic profiling, soil and water analyses, and climate data to survey the environmental and epidemiological factors associated with the frequency and diversity of NTM in Hawaii; 2) conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis of matched Hawaiian environmental and clinical NTM isolates to identify species of NTM and to link environmental influences and patient behavior with prevalence of NTM infection; and 3) build a predictive model of NTM transmission to understand disease dynamics in the Hawaiian Islands. This model may then be used to study these bacteria and associated lung disease with results that are likely generalizable to other areas of the world.  

SOFAC Administrative Account

  • PI: Baker, Justin Scott
  • Direct Sponsor Name: Southern Forest Resource Assessment Consortium (SOFAC)
  • Awarded Amount: $195,580.00 

Abstract: The Southern Forest Resource Assessment Consortium (SOFAC) will develop forest sector market models for application to forest resource assessments in the South, U.S., and the World.  SOFAC will integrate currently available forest resource data from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program and economic theory to model timber supply and demand in the South by local area.  SOFAC economic models will allow use of exogenous or endogenous inputs about supply, demand, land use change, and landowner behavior in the analysis of timber and forest land markets and management.  SOFAC modelers and members will be able to use the SOFAC suite of models and research to simultaneously project timber inventory, supply, and prices for a variety of regions and a variety of timber products across the South, the U.S., and the World.  SOFAC will foster discussion among modelers and members about the appropriate inputs and assumptions in forest projection models and employ these in building timber supply models and timber supply scenarios that represent likely conditions.  SOFAC will continue cooperative university-industry-public agency cooperation in southern and national forest sector economic modeling.  SOFAC will enhance graduate instruction in forest economics and modeling in the South. 

Energy, Biomass and Carbon Project, SOFAC Core Research Project

  • PI: Baker, Justin Scott
  • Direct Sponsor Name: Southern Forest Resource Assessment Consortium (SOFAC)
  • Amount Awarded: $1,659,802.00 

Abstract: The Southern Forest Resource Assessment Consortium (SOFAC) will develop forest sector market models for application to forest resource assessments in the South, U.S., and the World. SOFAC will integrate currently available forest resource data from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program and economic theory to model timber supply and demand in the South by local area. SOFAC economic models will allow use of exogenous or endogenous inputs about supply, demand, land use change, and landowner behavior in the analysis of timber and forest land markets and management. SOFAC modelers and members will be able to use the SOFAC suite of models and research to simultaneously project timber inventory, supply, and prices for a variety of regions and a variety of timber products across the South, the U.S., and the World. SOFAC will foster discussion among modelers and members about the appropriate inputs and assumptions in forest projection models and employ these in building timber supply models and timber supply scenarios that represent likely conditions. SOFAC will continue cooperative university-industry-public agency cooperation in southern and national forest sector economic modeling. SOFAC will enhance graduate instruction in forest economics and modeling in the South.