{"id":43382,"date":"2026-08-26T11:15:02","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T15:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/news\/?p=43382"},"modified":"2026-08-26T18:11:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T22:11:17","slug":"north-carolina-fall-foliage-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/news\/2026\/08\/north-carolina-fall-foliage-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"North Carolina\u2019s Fall Foliage May Be Patchy, Muted and Shorter This Year"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\t<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-summary\">\n\t\t<p class=\"eyebrow\">Key takeaways<\/p>\n    \n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fall colors will vary widely across North Carolina.<\/strong>&nbsp;A mix of drought, heat and rainfall could create a \u201cpatchwork\u201d of foliage, with some areas showing duller colors or shorter seasons.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The mountains have the best outlook, but drought remains a concern.<\/strong>&nbsp;Western North Carolina is expected to offer the most vibrant foliage, especially around Asheville, while drought and warm temperatures could cause leaves to brown or drop early.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Plenty of opportunities remain to enjoy fall foliage.<\/strong>&nbsp;North Carolina\u2019s mountains, parks, rivers, lakes and greenways offer many places to see fall colors, even if conditions vary across the state.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A mix of drought, high temperatures and above-average rainfall could lead to a \u201cpatchwork\u201d of fall foliage across North Carolina, with some areas seeing muted colors that fade more quickly, according to a North Carolina State University forestry expert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI expect to see a patchwork of fall colors across North Carolina this year,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/directory\/rebardon\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/directory\/rebardon\/\">Robert Bardon<\/a>, a professor in the Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources at NC State. \u201cFrom region to region, people may see quite a bit of variation.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bardon, who has tracked North Carolina\u2019s fall foliage patterns for more than a decade, analyzed the National Weather Service\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/long_range\/seasonal.php?lead=1\">temperature and precipitation outlooks<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.drought.gov\/states\/north-carolina\">U.S. Drought Monitor data<\/a> to assess how weather conditions could shape fall color across the state this year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">North Carolina\u2019s fall foliage can begin as early as late September in the upper mountain elevations, gradually spreading across the state until it peaks along the coast in early to mid-November. But the duration and vibrancy of fall foliage ultimately depends on weather conditions from September through October, according to Bardon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sunny days and cool, but not freezing, nights provide ideal conditions for fall foliage, according to Bardon. Conditions that differ from this pattern can lead to less vibrant colors or a shorter foliage season.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cA warm fall, extreme drought or excessive rain can shorten the season, but if we have the right precipitation and temperature, the fall colors can be vibrant and spectacular,\u201d Bardon said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions face less than favorable conditions for vibrant, long-lasting fall foliage. Both regions are leaning toward above-normal temperatures and continue to grapple with drought conditions. These conditions could delay the colors, cause leaves to drop early or make the foliage look dull.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the mountains, where millions of people visit each year to view fall foliage, the outlook is more favorable because the region has an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures, rather than a clear tilt toward warmth. Like the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, however, much of the region faces ongoing drought conditions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cDroughts stress trees, causing them to shut down early to conserve water. This stress results in leaves turning brown early,\u201d Bardon said. \u201cWarm fall temperatures could contribute to the drought stress and potentially shorten the fall color season.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Southern portions of the state lean toward above-normal precipitation, which could help alleviate drought in some areas, though Bardon warned that it could also shorten peak fall color and even diminish color intensity if there\u2019s too much rain throughout the fall season.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rainy, overcast conditions can limit sunlight, delaying the onset of fall color. They can also make leaves appear dull and promote fungal diseases that cause leaves to drop prematurely. Heavy rain and strong winds can further accelerate leaf loss by knocking leaves from trees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bardon said the Asheville area and northeastern portions of the Coastal Plain could see the most vibrant foliage this year, particularly if they remain drought-free. While drought continues to affect roughly 64% North Carolina, these areas have largely recovered following rainfall from recent storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No matter the conditions, North Carolina\u2019s topography and size make it one of the best leaf-peeping destinations in the country. \u201cIt is rare to not see great fall colors somewhere in the state,\u201d Bardon said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe great thing about North Carolina when it comes to viewing fall colors is the many options, from the Blue Ridge Parkway to state parks, county parks and community greenways, where people can get out and see the colors,\u201d Bardon added.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While western North Carolina is likely to have the most vibrant foliage this year, Bardon said residents and visitors in eastern North Carolina are likely to still find plenty of color near rivers, streams and lakes, where greater access to moisture is likely to help trees withstand drought stress and maintain healthier leaves into the fall.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-featured-people\">\n      <p class=\"eyebrow-label\">Featured Expert<\/p>\n    <div class=\"featured-people__container\">\n    \n<div class=\"wp-block-ncst-featured-person\">\n    <figure class=\"headshot-container\">\n      <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"600\" \n        src=\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/08\/Robert-Bardon.png\" \n        alt=\"Bald man wearing glasses, a blue dress shirt, and a blue checked blazer, smiling in front of a plain gray background.\" \n        class=\"headshot wp-image-43400\"\n        style=\"object-position:50% 50%\"\n srcset=\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/08\/Robert-Bardon.png 600w, https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/08\/Robert-Bardon-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/08\/Robert-Bardon-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/>\n    <\/figure>\n    <div class=\"person-container\">\n      <h3 class=\"name\">Robert Bardon<\/h3>\n              <p class=\"title\">Professor and Associate Dean for Extension<\/p>\n            \n<a \n      href=\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/directory\/rebardon\/\"\n      class=\"ncst-component__bold-link text-link\"\n                >\n    <span class=\"text\">Learn more<\/span><span class=\"arrow-indicator\"><svg class=\"wolficon wolficon-arrow-right-bold\" role=\"img\"  aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<use xlink:href=\"#wolficon-arrow-right-bold\">\n\t\t<\/svg><\/span>\n    <\/a>\n  \n\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false,"raw":"<!-- wp:ncst\/dynamic-header {\"block\":\"ncst\/default-post-header\",\"isSummaryActive\":true} -->\n<!-- wp:ncst\/default-post-header {\"caption\":\"Photo by trongnguyen\/stock.adobe.com\",\"displayCategoryID\":460,\"subtitle\":\"Professor Robert Bardon explains how drought, heat and rain could shape North Carolina\u2019s fall foliage, with some areas seeing more vibrant colors than others.\"} \/-->\n\n<!-- wp:ncst\/summary {\"eyebrowLabel\":\"Key takeaways\"} -->\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Fall colors will vary widely across North Carolina.<\/strong>&nbsp;A mix of drought, heat and rainfall could create a \u201cpatchwork\u201d of foliage, with some areas showing duller colors or shorter seasons.<\/li>\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>The mountains have the best outlook, but drought remains a concern.<\/strong>&nbsp;Western North Carolina is expected to offer the most vibrant foliage, especially around Asheville, while drought and warm temperatures could cause leaves to brown or drop early.<\/li>\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Plenty of opportunities remain to enjoy fall foliage.<\/strong>&nbsp;North Carolina\u2019s mountains, parks, rivers, lakes and greenways offer many places to see fall colors, even if conditions vary across the state.<\/li>\n<!-- \/wp:list-item --><\/ul>\n<!-- \/wp:list -->\n<!-- \/wp:ncst\/summary -->\n<!-- \/wp:ncst\/dynamic-header -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A mix of drought, high temperatures and above-average rainfall could lead to a \u201cpatchwork\u201d of fall foliage across North Carolina, with some areas seeing muted colors that fade more quickly, according to a North Carolina State University forestry expert.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>\u201cI expect to see a patchwork of fall colors across North Carolina this year,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/directory\/rebardon\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/directory\/rebardon\/\">Robert Bardon<\/a>, a professor in the Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources at NC State. \u201cFrom region to region, people may see quite a bit of variation.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bardon, who has tracked North Carolina\u2019s fall foliage patterns for more than a decade, analyzed the National Weather Service\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/long_range\/seasonal.php?lead=1\">temperature and precipitation outlooks<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.drought.gov\/states\/north-carolina\">U.S. Drought Monitor data<\/a> to assess how weather conditions could shape fall color across the state this year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>North Carolina\u2019s fall foliage can begin as early as late September in the upper mountain elevations, gradually spreading across the state until it peaks along the coast in early to mid-November. But the duration and vibrancy of fall foliage ultimately depends on weather conditions from September through October, according to Bardon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Sunny days and cool, but not freezing, nights provide ideal conditions for fall foliage, according to Bardon. Conditions that differ from this pattern can lead to less vibrant colors or a shorter foliage season.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>\u201cA warm fall, extreme drought or excessive rain can shorten the season, but if we have the right precipitation and temperature, the fall colors can be vibrant and spectacular,\u201d Bardon said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions face less than favorable conditions for vibrant, long-lasting fall foliage. Both regions are leaning toward above-normal temperatures and continue to grapple with drought conditions. These conditions could delay the colors, cause leaves to drop early or make the foliage look dull.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In the mountains, where millions of people visit each year to view fall foliage, the outlook is more favorable because the region has an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures, rather than a clear tilt toward warmth. Like the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, however, much of the region faces ongoing drought conditions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>\u201cDroughts stress trees, causing them to shut down early to conserve water. This stress results in leaves turning brown early,\u201d Bardon said. \u201cWarm fall temperatures could contribute to the drought stress and potentially shorten the fall color season.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Southern portions of the state lean toward above-normal precipitation, which could help alleviate drought in some areas, though Bardon warned that it could also shorten peak fall color and even diminish color intensity if there\u2019s too much rain throughout the fall season.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Rainy, overcast conditions can limit sunlight, delaying the onset of fall color. They can also make leaves appear dull and promote fungal diseases that cause leaves to drop prematurely. Heavy rain and strong winds can further accelerate leaf loss by knocking leaves from trees.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bardon said the Asheville area and northeastern portions of the Coastal Plain could see the most vibrant foliage this year, particularly if they remain drought-free. While drought continues to affect roughly 64% North Carolina, these areas have largely recovered following rainfall from recent storms.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>No matter the conditions, North Carolina\u2019s topography and size make it one of the best leaf-peeping destinations in the country. \u201cIt is rare to not see great fall colors somewhere in the state,\u201d Bardon said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>\u201cThe great thing about North Carolina when it comes to viewing fall colors is the many options, from the Blue Ridge Parkway to state parks, county parks and community greenways, where people can get out and see the colors,\u201d Bardon added.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While western North Carolina is likely to have the most vibrant foliage this year, Bardon said residents and visitors in eastern North Carolina are likely to still find plenty of color near rivers, streams and lakes, where greater access to moisture is likely to help trees withstand drought stress and maintain healthier leaves into the fall.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:ncst\/featured-people {\"label\":\"Featured Expert\"} -->\n<!-- wp:ncst\/featured-person {\"name\":\"Robert Bardon\",\"title\":\"Professor and Associate Dean for Extension\",\"headshot\":{\"id\":43400,\"url\":\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/08\/Robert-Bardon.png\",\"alt\":\"Bald man wearing glasses, a blue dress shirt, and a blue checked blazer, smiling in front of a plain gray background.\"}} -->\n<!-- wp:ncst\/bold-link {\"text\":\"Learn more\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cnr.ncsu.edu\/directory\/rebardon\/\",\"target\":false,\"placeholder\":\"Enter optional link\"} \/-->\n<!-- \/wp:ncst\/featured-person -->\n<!-- \/wp:ncst\/featured-people -->"},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Professor Robert Bardon explains how drought, heat and rain could shape North Carolina\u2019s fall foliage, with some areas seeing more vibrant colors than others.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":171,"featured_media":43389,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"source":"","ncst_custom_author":"","ncst_show_custom_author":false,"ncst_dynamicHeaderBlockName":"ncst\/default-post-header","ncst_dynamicHeaderData":"{\"caption\":\"Photo by trongnguyen\/stock.adobe.com\",\"displayCategoryID\":460,\"showAuthor\":true,\"showDate\":true,\"showFeaturedVideo\":false,\"subtitle\":\"Professor Robert Bardon explains how drought, heat and rain could shape North Carolina\u2019s fall foliage, with some areas seeing more vibrant colors than others.\"}","ncst_content_audit_freq":"","ncst_content_audit_date":"","ncst_content_audit_display":false,"ncst_backToTopFlag":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[111,1,102,3,460],"tags":[261,265,362],"_ncst_magazine_issue":[],"class_list":["post-43382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fer-research","category-hidden-news","category-hidden-newswire","category-research-innovation","category-thought-leadership","tag-fer-research","tag-forest-health","tag-forestry-and-environmental-resources"],"displayCategory":{"term_id":460,"name":"Thought Leadership","slug":"thought-leadership","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":460,"taxonomy":"category","description":"Our more than 200 faculty members are experts in their fields, conducting cutting-edge research to solve urgent challenges at the intersection of the environment, economy and society. 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