Fall Foliage in North Carolina: What to Expect This Year
With summer transitioning into fall, North Carolina’s trees will soon begin to transform into various shades of orange, yellow, red and purple.
Fall foliage should begin in the upper elevation of the mountains by the end of September and then gradually spread across the state. Peak colors can be expected from mid-October in the upper mountains to mid-November in the lower Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
“If we have warm, sunny days and cool nights with temperatures slightly above freezing, the timing and vibrancy of fall foliage should be similar to past years,” said Robert Bardon, a professor of forestry and environmental resources at NC State.
The cooler nighttime temperatures slow down the production of chlorophyll — the pigment that gives leaves their green color. This allows the carotenoid (orange) and xanthophyll (yellow) pigments to emerge from within.
Meanwhile, sunlight increases sugar production in the leaves and the cooler nighttime temperatures trap the sugar, producing a third pigment known as anthocyanin. Anthocyanin creates the more vibrant hues of red and purple seen during the fall.
The latest three-month climate forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows a slight chance of above-average temperatures and precipitation for much of North Carolina this fall.
Warmer temperatures can cause leaves to remain green longer, delaying the onset of fall colors. Above-average precipitation is usually accompanied by cloudy weather that blocks out the sunlight necessary for the production of anthocyanin.
“Rainy weather would lead to less vibrant reds and more yellow colors,” Bardon said.
In western North Carolina, where millions of people flock every year to view fall foliage, NOAA expects an equal chance of normal, above normal and below normal rainfall. Some parts of the region, including the Nantahala National Forest, continue to experience mild drought conditions.
While some trees can tolerate drier conditions and hold onto their leaves until autumn, the leaves that do change typically fall off prematurely and appear in more muted colors than normal.
“The most vibrant foliage appears when there’s a warm, dry summer followed by early autumn rains,” Bardon said. “Anytime there’s a disruption in that pattern, there can be an impact on the color of the leaves.”
Bardon added that tropical storms with heavy rainfall and strong winds also impact fall foliage by knocking leaves down, resulting in a shorter season.
NOAA scientists recently predicted a 90% chance for an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, including 4-7 major storms with winds of 111 mph or greater. Hurricane season ends on November 30.
