Defense Presentation Title: Oaks & Pines: Forecasting the future of forests across North America

Advisor: Dr. Robert Scheller, faculty fellow and Associate Dean for Research in the College of Natural Resources

Abstract: Long-term resilience and function of temperate forests in the United States will be challenged by novel climate futures compounded by region-specific legacies of land use. Southern Appalachian oak forests are threatened by the proliferation of mesic tree species causing a regeneration decline. Southwestern ponderosa pine forests are experiencing novel fire and drought disturbances that have intensified mortality in recent decades. It is uncertain how the feedback of forest dynamics, management, disturbance will evolve under novel climate futures beyond the observable records. Forest landscape models provide a useful framework for simulating long-term outcomes of forest dynamics under varying climate, management, and disturbance regimes. This presentation uses that framework to examine the multidecadal trajectories of landscape-scale change across these two contrasting temperate forest types.