Managing natural resources is fraught with uncertainty around how complex ecosystems will respond to management actions and a changing climate. A range of scientific tools can help grapple with different aspects of this challenge, but they are often used independently. This forum presentation describes a series of projects that have leveraged the complementary strengths of participatory scenario planning and various ecological modeling approaches to develop management-relevant information. By using these tools in combination and grounding them in management priorities, it has been possible to account for uncertainty, represent ecological patterns and processes, and facilitate climate change adaptation.

Bio

Dr. Brian Miller is a Research Ecologist with the US Geological Survey (USGS) North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. Brian’s current focus is on using scenario planning and simulation modeling to support natural resource management in the Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains. He is also a co-organizer of the Indigenous Phenology Network and an instructor with the National Conservation Training Center. He has an interdisciplinary background in social-ecological systems, and has used a broad range of methods – including simulation modeling, fluvial geomorphology, institutional and livelihood decision analysis, and remote sensing – to examine the interactions of climate, ecosystems, and resource management in East Africa, the Galápagos Islands, and the western U.S. Brian earned a B.A. in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology from the University of Colorado at Boulder, and a Ph.D. in Ecology from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.